Hi Udo, just a quick update. I just removed one data point from the year'14 which pertains to Jan and I am getting a smooth line now with correct forecast trend. All my upper and lower limits seems to be ok. As I mentioned early I have 4 years of data 2011, '12, '13, '14. For 2014 I have got only till Jan and the business is of less when compared to other years (coz only 1 month). So I filtered Jan to see whether it gives me correct forecast and seems to be fine. But could you suggest me whether this approach is correct. The data point (Jan 2014) has 10 million USD which got omitted after which I am getting a smooth increasing trend. But is it good to do this way by omitting such a huge value data point by considering that as an anomaly? regards, Satlr
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