Hello - On behalf of Technical Support:   "The reason why the Seasonal Component and the Seasonally-Adjusted series are missing could be releated to no non-missing Seasonal-Irregular component (SIC) values associated in your data. The Seasonal Component is computed as the average of the SIC for a given seasonal period. (Details on the computation of each of the components can be found here: http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/68148/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_timeseries_details07.htm)"   Technical Support has also created an example to illustrate this point further:   data test;   set sashelp.air(where=('01dec1958'd <= date <='01oct1960'd)); run;   proc timeseries data = test outdecomp = out;   id date interval=month;   decomp orig tcc sic sc ic sa/mode=mult;   var air; run;   proc expand data=test out=expandout method=none;   id date;    convert air=tc / transformout=( cd_tc 12 );    convert air=my_tc / transformout=(cmovave 12 movave 2 trim 6);    convert air=s  / transformout=( cd_s  12 );    convert air=i  / transformout=( cd_i  12 );    convert air=sa / transformout=( cd_sa 12 ); run;   proc print data=out; run;   proc print data=expandout; run;   Thanks, Udo ... View more

Hello - https://communities.sas.com/t5/Forecasting-and-Econometrics/What-is-the-mathematical-form-of-an-ARIMA-forecast/m-p/28736/highlight/true#M100 might be of interest. Thanks, Udo ... View more

Hello - Confidence limits are based on the prediction standard errors and a chosen confidence limit size. The variance of each forecast is called the prediction error variance, and the square root of the variance is called the prediction standard error. The variance is computed from the forecast model parameter estimates and the model residual variance. Wide CI usually indicate either a poor performing model or lots of noise in your data.   Have you considered using forecast combinations, also called ensemble forecasts? They are a known technique for improving forecast accuracy and reducing the variability of the resulting forecasts. See: http://blogs.sas.com/content/subconsciousmusings/2014/06/18/combined-forecasts-what-to-do-when-one-model-isnt-good-enough/   Thanks, Udo ... View more

Hello - Many thanks for your update - having 7 levels in a modeling hierarchy sounds a bit suspicious to me, as personally I'd like to distinguish between hierarchy levels needed to improve your statistical forecasts (would a few typically - every level should introduce a pattern which you did not observe on the lowest level) and hierarchy levels needed for reporting (typically used for communicating results to the end consumer).   But back to your question - Forecast Studio currently does not support specification of different parameters for different levels of a hierarchy - most of these settings are project based. In the process of modernizing Forecast Studio (see our latest release of Forecast Server Client) we are investigating how to add more level based parameters to the user interface.   In the short term, switching to code will give you more flexibility of course - as you can define the options on each level of the hierarchy yourself.    Thanks, Udo   ... View more

Hello - You may want to review Chapter 5 "Preparing an Input Data Set" of the SAS Forecast Studio 14.1User’s Guide again. All data specific settings in a project apply accross a hierarchy, as you will not be able to tell SAS Forecast Studio which input table to use for a certain level - data is rolled up starting from the lowest level. When using the SAS Forecast Server procedures you have more control over which table to use on which level, but you will be in charge for making sure that all data aligns accross hierarchies - which is typically the biggest challenge. Thanks, Udo ... View more

Duplicate of: https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Statistical-Procedures/How-to-handle-negative-value-in-Proc-X11/m-p/235941#U235941 ... View more

Hello - Have a look at the X12 (or X13 in SAS/ETS 14.1) procedure instead. The MODE= option is supported in the X11 statement of these procedures. Thanks, Udo ... View more

Hello - If you have access to SAS Forecast Server you will be able to take advantage of Forecasting Model Score Files and DATA Step Functions at least for your UCMs. See Chapter 22 of the SAS Forecast Server Procedures User's Guide. Or you could use SAS Forecast Studio's scenario analysis feature which provides access to this functionality. Thanks, Udo       ... View more

Hello - You can always add events to individual series in the modeling view. For a more automatic approach you will have to fall back to independent variables currently or switch to coding (see: https://communities.sas.com/t5/Forecasting-and-Econometrics/Using-eventby-in-a-group-of-events/m-p/30031/highlight/true#M104) - however with SAS Forecasting for Desktop you won't have access to code. Thanks, Udo ... View more

Hello - You may want to turn your event into a indicator variable in our table (and put a 1 for only the regions impacted) - and use an independent variable instead of event. Thanks, Udo ... View more

Hello - This seems to be a defect indeed - thanks for bringing it to our attention. Here a one way to work around it: Step 1: copy the data Step 2: Paste the data Step 3: click on (Crtl) pull down in Excel Step 4: select "Use Text Import Wizard..." Step 5: make sure to use "Tab" as delimiter Step 6: you will need to clean up the label manually   Hope this helps. Regards, Udo ... View more

Hello - Under Forecasting View - hit "Copy Table" icon. This will bring up a this dialog: In MS Excel you will be able to paste the table into a spreadsheet: Works fine with Forecasting for Desktop 13.2 (at least for me). If you experience a different behavior you may want to contact Technical Support. Thanks, Udo ... View more