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srishti
Calcite | Level 5

I want to implement simple exponential smoothing model to minimize mean square error by optimizing smoothing weights.
Data I am using is time series data.

I am using proc ESM .I wanted to know if proc ESM is the right approach for the same?

code:
proc esm data=solver out=p outest=u outstat=h outfor=k lead=1 print=all printdetails;
id date interval=year;
forecast ft; /* ft is column in dataset for which we are forecasting values */
run;

The results coming from TSFS of ETS and proc esm are same.(value of mean square error ,forecasted values and smoothing weights)

1 ACCEPTED SOLUTION

Accepted Solutions
udo_sas
SAS Employee

Hello -

Looks good - as the default model of PROC ESM is simple exponential smoothing.

If you would like to switch to a different ESM you can add a "model" option to your FORECAST statement.

For example:

forecast ft / model=DAMPTREND; /*for damped trend exponential smoothing */

For more detail check out: http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/68148/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_esm_syntax04.h...

Thanks,

Udo

 

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1 REPLY 1
udo_sas
SAS Employee

Hello -

Looks good - as the default model of PROC ESM is simple exponential smoothing.

If you would like to switch to a different ESM you can add a "model" option to your FORECAST statement.

For example:

forecast ft / model=DAMPTREND; /*for damped trend exponential smoothing */

For more detail check out: http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/68148/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_esm_syntax04.h...

Thanks,

Udo

 

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