I want to implement simple exponential smoothing model to minimize mean square error by optimizing smoothing weights.
Data I am using is time series data.
I am using proc ESM .I wanted to know if proc ESM is the right approach for the same?
code:
proc esm data=solver out=p outest=u outstat=h outfor=k lead=1 print=all printdetails;
id date interval=year;
forecast ft; /* ft is column in dataset for which we are forecasting values */
run;
The results coming from TSFS of ETS and proc esm are same.(value of mean square error ,forecasted values and smoothing weights)
Hello -
Looks good - as the default model of PROC ESM is simple exponential smoothing.
If you would like to switch to a different ESM you can add a "model" option to your FORECAST statement.
For example:
forecast ft / model=DAMPTREND; /*for damped trend exponential smoothing */
For more detail check out: http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/68148/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_esm_syntax04.h...
Thanks,
Udo
Hello -
Looks good - as the default model of PROC ESM is simple exponential smoothing.
If you would like to switch to a different ESM you can add a "model" option to your FORECAST statement.
For example:
forecast ft / model=DAMPTREND; /*for damped trend exponential smoothing */
For more detail check out: http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/68148/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_esm_syntax04.h...
Thanks,
Udo
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