Proc ESM Seasonal Model Help

[adscottsoden]

Hi, Im trying to do a forecast on some data for my group and using the Proc ESM...I do a seasonal daily model because I want it to account for changes in day of week. However, I also want to account for the month and other trends. I have one variable i'm wanting to forecast...but Im not getting as close as I want....do you have any suggestions of techniques for improving the signficance of the projected values and minimizing the errors?

Proc Sort data = cwork.forecast_queue_elig_vdps_1;
by Channel tier;
run;

ODS Listing;
ODS RTF File = '\\wfsnccicnsf01\c_cds_users\a097529\My Documents\forecastqueueEligvdps1.rtf';
proc ESM data=cwork.forecast_queue_elig_vdps_1 out = forecastedqueue_elig_vdps Lead = 15 plot=forecasts PRINT = FORECASTS;
by Channel tier;
ID trandate interval = day accumulate=average;
forecast totalqueuedin/model= seasonal;

run;
ODS rtf Close;

Thank you for your help!!!!

Allie

[SteveDenham]

Hi Allie,

The folks who follow https://communities.sas.com/community/support-communities/sas_forecasting are much more likely to have good answers, so a post in that forum may be warranted.  Generally, if the prediction is not where you want it regarding stability, you may wish to consider adding explanatory terms to the model, and really checking on stationarity.  Seasonality may not be the only thing affecting your predictions.

Steve Denham