Not real sure this approach will work, but you might try arranging your data so that each desumy and y are read in as input, and desumy_t is a dependent variable. Then you could fit this
desumy_t = (desumy_t-1 + y_t-1)*prho;
assuming some sort of count related distribution (poisson, negbin or generalized poisson).
SteveDenham
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