Hello,
I am using Forecast Studio to create monthly forecasts. I am encountering a problem where the forecast model selection creates an exponential increase for the last three months when the actuals show a basically constant history. Graphically it looks like a 'hockey stick'.
I then drill into that specific series and select another forecast model that better reflects the data. It may have a greater MAPE but it makes much more sense for the long term projection.
Has anyone ever encountered this situation? If so, is there a programmatic or better way to deal with this? My datasets are quite large with many levels of hierarchy.
Thank you in advance.
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