Hello - It seems to me that a trend model is picked by SAS Forecast Studio - which apparently seems to be not appropriate for your data. Here is what you might want to consider: a) use a hold-out sample to select the model (see: Project/Forecasting Settings/Model selection) b) use a selection statistic different to MAPE like SBC or AIC (see: Project/Forecasting Settings/Model selection) c) run "Level Model Forecast Quality Extreme Table" report from "Reports and Stored Processes" as a post-process and deal with the flagged models interactively. Thanks, Udo ... View more