Hello,
I'm using an expo model to forecast a variable monthly for a year. The problem is I get the exact same number for every month. I figured If I change the trend number to 2 or 3 then I get different forecast numbers every month but the forecast wouldn't be accurate. I have a constant model with a very slow moving trend so I thought trend=1 would be the right choise. any suggestions on how to handle this issue?
proc forecast data=have interval=month lead=12
method=expo weight=0.2 trend=1
out=want outset=est;
var price;
id date;
run;
Thanks!
The answer is in the documentation at:
PROC FORECAST is superseded by PROC ESM. PROC ESM optimizes the weights of the smoothing model. I recommend you use PROC ESM instead.
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