PROC ESM AddWinters Alpha Value

[Rhupesh]

Hello,

Could someone help me clarify below query? 

I have step responses in history and so, when ever I find a step response I want to use a different ALPHA value. But change in alpha value has no impact in predicted values. Below is the syntax i used.

forecast <var>/model=addwinters  ALPHA=0.25;

Can someone help me on this?

Thanks.

[rainxi · Accepted solution]

Hello,

ALPHA defines the significance level to use in computing the confidence limits of the forecast. For example, ALPHA =0.05 produces 95% confidence intervals. The change of the value of ALPHA will NOT change the predicted value. 

F.Y.I.

http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/63939/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_esm_sect007.ht...

Thanks,

Rain