I want to prove if crude oil price are effect to unemployment rate. By the way, the data are time series data, collected every 4 months a year for 10 years. The data are as bellow; Oil Price Unemployment 78.01 1.63 82.58 1.61 96.16 1.18 113.96 1.11 87.52 1.65 102.74 1.39 75.23 1.18 53.53 1.33 108.40 2.08 39.10 1.75 85.58 1.17 101.41 0.98 26.00 1.13 97.57 1.32 88.50 0.87 67.01 0.85 99.21 0.83 77.17 0.60 77.69 0.66 74.99 0.63 79.05 0.72 75.36 0.86 70.69 0.58 81.13 0.47 71.00 0.72 84.36 0.74 84.69 0.77 76.47 0.65 84.91 0.89 76.62 1.00 75.03 0.84 78.83 0.61 77.25 0.94 75.73 0.88 80.02 0.92 79.33 0.80 74.27 0.97 81.84 1.08 78.85 0.94 77.27 0.97 so i have to do 1. the stationary test by using ADF test 2. the cointegratio*n test to see the long-term relationship 3. the Grange*r causality test to see if x is grange*r cause y or not 4. the ARIM*A test to predict the future what syntax should i use? thank you in advance
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