About FVidal

FVidal · ‎04-05-2019

Hello everybody, There is a way to automatically upload to SAS server instead os using SAS portal? There is a way to automate the 'upload' functionality of SAS Portal? I'm planning to automate my projects like this: - When I detect that I have my input files in an specific ftp, then upload them automatically to the SAS server - Then execute SAS EG - Finally download outputs automatically Witch options I have to automate this kind of things? Thanks in advanced, Thanks! Ferran

FVidal · ‎05-29-2018

Hello everybody, I would like to know if there is the possibility to force Forecast Studio to give me discret values. I have an initial dataset with discret values and I know that the only possible values are discret values. How can I get discret values from a Forecast Studio model? I'm using Forecast Studio 14.2. Thanks in advanced, Ferran

FVidal · ‎11-17-2017

Hello, For example, in the 'simple exponential smoothing' the formula is: L(t) = alpha*Y(t) + (1-alpha)L(t-1) But, you need, an initial L(0) to construct the next L(1). In Double, Holt, Winters, etc...you always should have a rule to decide the first element, isn't it? In the following text they call it 'Initialitzation': https://www.otexts.org/fpp/7/1 Regards, Ferran

FVidal · ‎11-17-2017

Hello, Now I realise that the models that are not including to the repository are the combined ones. The question is now, there is no option to include this models to the repository? Regards, Ferran

FVidal · ‎11-17-2017

Hello, There is a limit of models in Forecast Studio in the model repository list? I've noticed that the new models that I create doesnt appear on it. I'm using FS 12.1. Thanks, Ferran

FVidal · ‎11-17-2017

Hello, I would like to know how Forecast Studio choose the first element of the exponential smoothing models. Can I found some document with explanations? Thank you, Ferran

FVidal · ‎07-17-2017

Hello PaigeMiller, Thanks for you answer. I find the problem with several models. In SAS FS we have eight exponential smoothing models, isn't it? You said that Simple Exponential Smoothing is ARIMA (0,1,1). There are equivalence for all ESM? Double Exponential Smoothing Linear Exponential Smoothing Damped-trend Exponential Smoothing Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Multiplicative Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Winters Method - Additive version Winters Method - Multiplicative version Regards, Ferran

FVidal · ‎07-17-2017

Hello, I would like to know if there is a method to obtain an ARIMA model that 'simulates' a particular Exponential Smoothing. The problem is that, in some cases, I get a very good exponential smoothing model and in a particular month I need to add an event. As far as I know, I can not add events in an ESM. So, then I have to change my model to an ARIMA...and with ARIMA I'm not getting a good model. The question is: there is a way to obtain an 'equivalent' ARIMA? Thanks, Ferran

FVidal · ‎07-04-2017

Hello alexchien, Thanks again for you answers! I just have a doubt. You said the general formula for MA is: Y_t = C + (1 - m_1 B - m_2 B_2 - ....) e_t so, the formula for MA(1) should be, if I'm not wrong, like: Y_t = C + e_t - m_1 e_t-1 And in your formula Y_t = 102.17485004 + 0.041325847 e_t-1 you didn't mentioned e_t. Can we assume that e_t is equal 0? or we are assuming that C+e_t=mean? Thanks! Ferran

FVidal · ‎07-03-2017

Alexchien, Thankyou very much for the example. It can not be more clear! 🙂 Now, I'm able to understand and reproduce models with differenciation and also with autoregressive parameters(p). Could you help me with some example with 'moving-average'(q) parameter? This part of an ARIMA model is always confuse to understand for me. Having an Excel example always helps to clarify it and believe in the models. Thanks in advanced, Ferran

FVidal · ‎07-03-2017

Thank you alexchien, I'm traying to reproduce this model en Excel. Do you know wich formula is using SAS to make the 'random walk' model? Regards, Ferran

FVidal · ‎06-27-2017

Hello everybody, I would like to know your opinion about one ARIMA model automatically created by SAS Forecast Studio. The model just have the d argument informed and p and q are empty, like this: p= empty d= (1,12) q= empty Wich model we have? I understand that d=1 means that we have one order differencing, d=2 two orders differencing. But, whats the meaning of (1,12)? And,..if we are just differencing...without p and q...wich is the model? In fact the model that I get it's a good model and It reflects what I want but I'm not understanding how is doing it if I look at the parametres. Can you give some light? I'm using SAS Forecast Studio 12.1. Thankyou, Ferran

FVidal · ‎05-25-2017

Hello everybody, It happend to me several times that in 'Modeling View' I have certain graph in the 'Historical and Forecast Region' and it differs from the graph that I have in the 'Forecasting View'. I understand that this could happen when the model selected in the 'Modeling View' it's not the 'forecast model', but, how can this happen if I select the 'forecast model'? I'm using FS 12.1. Thanks in advanced, Ferran

FVidal · ‎03-15-2017

Hello, I would like to know if there is the possibility in FS to select a model indirectly touching some dataset/s. The thing is that I need to select certain model for a lot of items in the hierarchy and changing the models manually from FS could be really slow. I'm using FS 12.1. Thanks in advanced, Ferran

FVidal · ‎03-04-2017

Hello Alex, Thankyou for your reply. This script that you mention can be writted an executed inside FS and see the result too in FS or I should do it in Enterprise Guide? And, another question. Do you know if I can find, in some dataset, all the forecast information of all the models that FS ajusted not just the selected one? There is a way to get this values? It can be useful because I want to know wich of the adjusted models has the best DPA in the last 6 months. If I'm correct FS calculates MAPE for all the time serie not the lasts months. Thanks in advanced, Ferran

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SAS Portal automate

Discret values in forecasting

Re: Forecast Studio - Exponential smoothing initialitzation

Re: Forecast Studio limit model repository

Forecast Studio limit model repository

Forecast Studio - Exponential smoothing initialitzation

Re: From Exponential Smoothing Model to an equivalent ARIMA

From Exponential Smoothing Model to an equivalent ARIMA

Re: SAS Forecast Studio - Interpretation of an ARIMA model without p a...

Re: SAS Forecast Studio - Interpretation of an ARIMA model without p a...

Re: SAS Forecast Studio - Interpretation of an ARIMA model without p a...

SAS Portal automate

Discret values in forecasting

Re: Forecast Studio - Exponential smoothing initialitzation

Re: Forecast Studio limit model repository

Forecast Studio limit model repository

Forecast Studio - Exponential smoothing initialitzation

Re: From Exponential Smoothing Model to an equivalent ARIMA

From Exponential Smoothing Model to an equivalent ARIMA

Re: SAS Forecast Studio - Interpretation of an ARIMA model without p a...

Re: SAS Forecast Studio - Interpretation of an ARIMA model without p a...

Re: SAS Forecast Studio - Interpretation of an ARIMA model without p a...

SAS Forecast Studio - Interpretation of an ARIMA model without p and q

Forecast Studio: Forecasting view vs Modeling view

Forecast Studio: reasign all the models with touching datasets

Re: Change MAPE for custom value in Forecast Studio