Thanks again Steve. I still don't understand how the variance of an observation could not include contributions from COUNTRY or PRODUCT*COUNTRY and I'm still not sure how to obtain the interval that I need. In hopes that it will help illustrate what I'm trying to accomplish, I'm going to attempt to break down the example a little further. First of all, for illustration, I think that it might be easier to understand if the variance component for COUNTRY were a little larger. Therefore, I tweaked the PRDSALE data set as follows and the executed the same model on the resultant data set: DATA PRDSALE; SET SASHELP.PRDSALE; IF COUNTRY='CANADA' THEN ACTUAL=ACTUAL+500; RUN; PROC MIXED DATA=PRDSALE; CLASS PRODUCT COUNTRY; MODEL ACTUAL=PRODUCT PRODUCT*PREDICT/NOINT; RANDOM COUNTRY PRODUCT*COUNTRY; ESTIMATE 'BED AT $300' PRODUCT 1 0 0 0 0 PRODUCT*PREDICT 300 0 0 0 0; RUN; From the resultant covariance parameter estimates, the estimated variance of an observation is Var(ACTUAL)=Var(COUNTRY)+Var(PRODUCT*COUNTRY)+Var(Residual)=86924+217+82470=171411 and the estimated standard deviation is 414. Therefore, if the fixed effect parameters (the slope and intercept for the BED product) were known without error, I think I could compute a prediction interval for an individual observation using this standard deviation and a critical value from the t-distribution with d.f. determined by the Satterthwaite method. Of course, the problem is that this does not include variation in the fixed effect parameter estimates and I don't really know the mean of BED at PREDICT=300. According to the output from the ESTIMATE statement, we estimate this value to be 624.89 with a standard error of 173.41. My initial thought was that this estimated standard error did not include any contribution from COUNTRY; after all, the estimated variance of COUNTRY is much larger than the variance of the estimate. However, I now realize that this is not completely true since, as Steve said, the value of Bed and its variance is marginal over all values of COUNTRY. When I posted the initial message in this thread I thought that the variance of the error in a prediction could be expressed as Var(Prediction Error) = Var(Predicted Value) + Var(Actual) = 173.41**2 + 171411 = 201482. This approach would be similar to the method used to calculate the variance for a traditional prediction interval used in regression application. Now, I'm just more confused than ever and don't really know what to try next. Just a thought, would it make more sense to use the standard error of the estimate if the narrow inference space was used instead? ESTIMATE 'BED AT 300 NARROW' PRODUCT 15 PRODUCT*PREDICT 4500 | COUNTRY 5 5 5 PRODUCT*COUNTRY 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1/DIVISOR=15; This ESTIMATE statement produced the same predicted value of ACTUAL but the standard error is 32.9 instead of 173.4. It seems to me that this would certainly not include any contributions from COUNTRY or PRODUCT*COUNTRY. Does what I'm trying to accomplish make sense? If anyone have any suggestions, better methods, or code examples it would be very much appreciated. Thanks again!
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