How to forecast TimeSeries data dependent on same time and day of week

[vasanthz]

Hi Experts,

I have a SAS dataset that has transactions count by hour for 3 years.

The count of transactions at a specific hour depends on the same hour and day of the previous n weeks.

Example, The transaction count of future Tuesday 10AM, depends on all the past Tuesdays 10AM values.

The value at Thurdsay 6 PM would depend on all past Thursday 6PM.

Could you please let me a starting program to forecast this for the next day. Thank you. I have tried using PROC ARIMA with NLAG=168. But that doesn't seem to work, the forecast for 00:00 hours starts at high value and then the forecast value tends to move to zero by 23:00

PROC ARIMA DATA=PDB.UNIFIED_TS;
IDENTIFY VAR=SALES NLAG=168;
ESTIMATE P=1 Q=1;
RUN;
FORECAST LEAD=168 INTERVAL=HOUR ID=DATETIME OUT=PDB.RESULTS;
RUN;
QUIT;

I then tried using PROC UCM, but I am not sure what I am doing wrong there.

PROC UCM DATA=TIMESER_TS;
ID DATETM INTERVAL=HOUR;
MODEL MSU;
IRREGULAR;
LEVEL;
SLOPE;
SEASON LENGTH=24 TYPE=TRIG;
ESTIMATE;
FORECAST LEAD=48 OUTFOR=FORE_UCM;
RUN;
QUIT;

Thank you,

Vasanth.S

[vasanthz]

Pardon my ignorance, I am a base programmer and don't have much knowledge on statistics and learning now.

[Ksharp]

It is a question about SAS/ETS.
Better post it at Forecasting forum:
https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/bd-p/forecasting_econometrics

Also you could try PROC ESM .
And I quoted:
"The ESM procedure generates forecasts by using exponential smoothing models with optimized smoothing
weights for many time series or transactional data."