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Calcite | Level 5

I'm trying to program sample size for a bayesian adaptive design, with a binary performance goal of say, AE rate less than 20%.  Data will be analyzed after X subjects, and if needed after each subsequent Y subjects.  There are three possible outcomes after each stage until success, futility or max sample size of N is reached.  So I need to program simulations and probability required for determining study success at each analysis stage.

Note that success decision can be something like: "Termination of enrollment for success if the posterior probability using observed data was sufficient to meet the performance goal (99% probability or greater for 50 and 75 subject interim checks, 97.5% thereafter)"

Continued accrual due to reasonable predictive probability (10% or greater) that performance goal can be met with more subjects.

Futility if predictive probability the performance goal could be met with enrollment of more subjects was less than 10%

Thank you for any insight....

Super User

I've done this's not easy or straightforward.

You basically have to determine the math and then program it, but no procs in SAS to accomplish it Smiley Sad

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