Statistical Procedures

Programming the statistical procedures from SAS
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Toni2
Lapis Lazuli | Level 10

Could you please someone explain very simply if the below are correct ? 

 

Based on the below definitions for autocorrelation and stationarity my understanding is :

 

  1. a non-stationary variable will express autocorrelation  
  2. a time series with no-autocorrelation is stationary  

 

  • Autocorrleation = it is the correlation of a variable between its current value and a period before. Autocorrelation refers to the degree of correlation of the same variables between two successive time intervals
  • A stationary time serie is one whose properties do not depend on the time at which the series is observed. A stationary time series is one whose statistical properties such as mean, variance, autocorrelation, etc. are all constant over time. Thus, time series with trends, or with seasonality, are not stationary — the trend and seasonality will affect the value of the time series at different times. A stationarity test of the variables is required because Granger and Newbold (1974) found that regression models for non-stationary variables give spurious results.

 

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FreelanceReinh
Jade | Level 19

Hello @Toni2,

 

Your statements 1 and 2 are basically equivalent. And false. Counterexample: Consider a stochastic process in discrete time, i.e., a sequence of random variables Xt (t=1, 2, ...) with, say, Xt ~ N(t, 1) -- normal distribution with mean t and variance 1 -- for all t and let X1, X2, ... be independent. Then there's no autocorrelation (independence implies uncorrelatedness), but the process (time series) is non-stationary because the mean is not constant over time.

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FreelanceReinh
Jade | Level 19

Hello @Toni2,

 

Your statements 1 and 2 are basically equivalent. And false. Counterexample: Consider a stochastic process in discrete time, i.e., a sequence of random variables Xt (t=1, 2, ...) with, say, Xt ~ N(t, 1) -- normal distribution with mean t and variance 1 -- for all t and let X1, X2, ... be independent. Then there's no autocorrelation (independence implies uncorrelatedness), but the process (time series) is non-stationary because the mean is not constant over time.

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