data set for "simulation models .." by Erdman

[user24feb]

I'd like to try some of the examples in "simulation models for business planning and economic forecasting" ( https://support.sas.com/rnd/app/ets/papers/simulationmodels.pdf ). Does anybody know where to find the sales-toaster-data?

[ShelleySessoms · Accepted solution]

Hi @user24feb, I contacted the author of the paper and was told it's fake data. But he did provide the code. Hope it helps.

Thanks,

Shelley

data toast;
    tsales =870;
    fs_sales =470;
    fs_price =10;
    gnp = 0.5;
    price = 10.1;
    do t=1 to 50;
       month = t;
       price = price * 0.8 + 1.5 * rannor(52) + 1.5;
       fs_price = 0.7 * fs_price + 15.1 + 5 * rannor(5);
       bprice = 0.1 + 0.01 * rannor(2);
       gnp =  0.8 * gnp  + 0.7 *rannor(156) + 1;
       nwed = 4 * sin(t/5) + 25 + 3*rannor(644);
       tsales = 0.91 *tsales - 18.5 * price ** 1.2 +
             13 *nwed + 10 * gnp + 30;
       fs_sales = 0.9 * fs_sales - fs_price ** 0.5 +
             18 * gnp + 50 ;
       if t >= 15 and t < 20 then tsales = tsales + 250;
       if t >= 35 and t < 40 then tsales = tsales + 290;

       if t >= 15 and t < 20 then fs_sales = fs_sales + 150;
       if t >= 35 and t < 40 then fs_sales = fs_sales + 190;

       ad_cost =0;
       if t >= 15 and t < 20 then ad_cost = 5000;
       if t >= 35 and t < 40 then ad_cost = 8000;

       tsales = (tsales - 0.01 * fs_sales) /0.9995;
       fs_sales = fs_sales - 0.015 * tsales;
       tsales = tsales + 20*rannor(7);
       fs_sales = fs_sales + 8*rannor(66);

       output;
    end;
run;


title height=4 'Monthly Toaster Sales';
proc gplot data=toast;
   axis1  value=(height=3) label=(height=3  'Months');
   axis2 value=(height=3) label=(height=3  'TSales');
   plot tsales*month / haxis=axis1 vaxis=axis2;
   symbol1 width=2 i=join ;
run;

[user24feb]

If somebody else is ever interested: Add `date = intnx('month', '01JAN89'd, t); format date Date9.;`.