MAPES over 100

[Ghabek]

Hello

I have retail data at Region and State levels of a hierarchy.

The time is Order_Date at the week level

Im trying to forecast total sales out 26 weeks

Im getting MAPES in the hundreds in SAS Visual Forecasting (and in Forecast Server)

Never seen this before -- I have a critical customer demo next week

what do I do to the data?

urgent help

attached is the file

[MaJoFC]

Hi,

I see that my R&D teammate, imvash, has already answered your related question. If this is urgent, I would suggest you contact SAS Technical Support.

Without looking at your project settings, it might be difficult to provide specific guidance. If you can share your VF or Forecast Server project through exported zip file (VF) or archive file (FS), that might help.

In general, MAPE is not guaranteed to be less than 100. Large MAPE values typically indicate that forecasts are much larger than actual values on an average. Inadequacy of the data is one possible reason. If you can isolate some series that are leading to high MAPE values, and look at the historical data for those series and the type of model that was selected as the best model, etc, you might get some clues.

Best Regards,

Mahesh