How do I better my MAPE using Forecast Studio?

[jctran123]

Hi SAS community,

I am currently working on a sales forecast and my goal is to lower the MAPE for each selection. I am looking into customizing models, but have the slightest idea on where to start. Does anyone know where I can refer to to learn about each selection on the customize model pop up? For instance, if I was to check off "Define initial variance" how do I decide on what number to enter? What does the number mean? How do I know it is accurate? 

Thank you in advance, 

Jessica 

[alexchien]

Hi Jessica,

You can just Google PROC UCM (https://support.sas.com/documentation/onlinedoc/ets/132/ucm.pdf), PROC ARIMA, and PROC ESM to get the procedure documentations from the sas support site. You will find all the techinical details there. My sugguestion is not to set anything that you are not familir with, for example, the initial variance for the Trend coomponent in the UCM mdoel. The procedure itself will do a good job for you for the variance estimates.

thanks

Alex