Data Hierarchy Updates in Forecast STudio

[andreas_zaras]

Hello,

I read that hierarchy changes in the data set related to a FS project are automatically detected (when e.g. we reopen the project) and forecasts for any new series are generated using the BEST selection list by default. The BEST selection list contains only exponential smoohting models.

Form which menu/ option can we change this default behavior? Are there any other options to determine that the new series in the hierarchy be forecasted with models from other lists other than the one called BEST?

Thanks in advance,

Andreas

[RyanK]

Andreas,

We have not changed the structure of the input dataset for the Forecast Studio project, but we do regularly change the contents.  For example, we create a dataset called forecast_input in batch, then call fscreate.  The forecast_input dataset will change on a daily basis and have new projects created.  If you open a project that was created with a previous version of the dataset, then you are prompted with a dialog asking if want to import the new data and reforecast.  The default selection in 3.1 was to import and reforecast, and we had a number of times that users would expect that selection instead of cancelling.  This would blow everything away and generate a new forecast.

The default has been changed in 12.1, but you still get the dialog.  I do not believe there is a project option to never import a new dataset.  Your best option is likely to uniquely name the input dataset for the project.

Ryan

[udo_sas]

Hi Andreas -

If the structure of your input data set changes then SAS Forecast Studio will prompt you with this dialog:

So you will have plenty of options to choose from.

Does this help?

Thanks,

Udo

[andreas_zaras]

Hello Udo,

Thanks for your answer. Actually i read the FS course notes (version 4.1). In the last slide (number 41, chapter 5) it says that when new series are added because of hierarchy changes (e.g. addition of a new SKU) the forecasts are produced using only the BEST slection list that contains only exponential smoohting models. Is that correct? Only ESM can be fitted in new series due to hierarchy changes? Is there an option to tell the software to change this default behavior and try to fit other model families (e.g. ARIMA or UCM) to the new series? I guess that the update project data screenshot that you sent refers only to series that were already in the data set. The slide that i mentioned before referes to new sereis that are added due to hierarchy changes.

Thanks,

Andreas

[chwell · Accepted solution]

Hi Andreas. I tested this behavior in FS version 12, and it is consistent with what is listed in the help doc (see Data --> Updating in Project). Followig Udo's note, if you choose to rediagnose on opening an existing project, the newly added series (e.g. SKUs that did not exist in the data when the project was last closed) are handled under the defaults just like any other series; e.g. since I had candidate independent varibles, 2 arimax and one ESM were diagnosed for each of the new SKUs. If you choose some other update option, e.g., Select, then the BEST (ESM only) list is used to provide a model and generate forecasts for the new series. 

I don't have access to version 4.1 of FStudio, but if you want to test, I have two data sets that are identical except for one type (SKU) designation. You can create the project on the restricted one and close. Then, delete the restricted data set in the SMC, and rename and register the unrestricted one. Re-opening the project will generate the screen that Udo shows above.  

Hope this helps. Chip  

[andreas_zaras]

Hello Chip, thanks for your answer. I thought that the hierarchy update was not connected with the options in the update project data window that Udo sent. Based on the two answers everything is clear!

Thank you very much to all of you!

Andreas