Hi ,
I have monthly data sets which look like this:
dismonth | pross | Actual |
JUL15 | AUG15 | 4415822.77 |
JUL15 | SEP16 | 33578.75 |
JUL15 | NOV15 | 408408.93 |
JUL15 | JUL15 | 3347038.23 |
JUL15 | JUN16 | 59340 |
JUL15 | OCT17 | 5526.5 |
JUL15 | MAR16 | 112341.58 |
JUL15 | JUL17 | 4363 |
JUL15 | SEP15 | 1611128.75 |
JUL15 | APR17 | 4426 |
JUL15 | JAN16 | 140840.5 |
JUL15 | JAN17 | 11595.75 |
JUL15 | OCT16 | 21883.75 |
JUL15 | JUL16 | 61080.5 |
JUL15 | OCT15 | 696127.06 |
JUL15 | DEC17 | 2350 |
JUL15 | APR16 | 89935.1 |
JUL15 | SEP17 | 2544.5 |
JUL15 | JUN17 | 4731.5 |
JUL15 | MAR17 | 15919 |
JUL15 | DEC16 | 13774 |
JUL15 | DEC15 | 300524.3 |
JUL15 | AUG16 | 58034.25 |
JUL15 | MAY16 | 80908.5 |
JUL15 | NOV17 | 9548.4 |
JUL15 | AUG17 | 7095.36 |
JUL15 | FEB16 | 157373.5 |
JUL15 | MAY17 | 3204 |
JUL15 | FEB17 | 8664.25 |
JUL15 | NOV16 | 15808 |
I want to forecast for the next 5 years but when I use proc arima few of the forecasts are negative & look incorrect & there are a few warnings :
Warning: There are gaps in the interval for observation 2 according to ID variable PROSS_DATE.
Can some one help out?
Thanks in advance.
It is not clear to me what you are trying to do. You said you have monthly data sets that look like your example (presumably DISMONTH which in your data only shows observations for July 2015), so what is the PROSS date? Are you trying to analyze the monthly files separately or was the data you showed just one month from a large set of monthly data which has many observations? Either way, the EXPAND procedure can help you interpolate any missing values and or accumulate your data to the desired level. It would be easier if you sorted the data by date as needed to be able to more easily see patterns. There seems to be some wild fluctuations in ACTUAL but it is hard to see if any patterns are present when the data is not sorted. Were you able to get what you needed using the EXPAND procedure?
Cordially,
Doug
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