Average Probability, please Help...Thank You

[Kanyange]

Hi,

Just a quick question regarding average response rate vs average probability...Let's say I have an average campaign response rate of 10%. Then I build my model using contacted customers (let's say around 100 000) to predict customers who are more likely to respond. Once I am happy with the model, I score my eligible base (1 Millions). When I look at the distribution of my probabilities accross the base, does the average probability have to match my original response rate 10% (0.10)?

Your help would be much appreciated

Many Thanks

[M_Maldonado]

In general, yes, expect the same response as long as your training data is a good sample and the observation window of your model makes sense to you.

The more similar the training data to your scoring data, the more similar the response rate. In other words, the more similar the distribution of each input for both the target events (response in this case) and for the non-target events (non-response), the closer your response will be to the 10% response rate of your training data.

This is because you are assuming your data is a sample that can be scaled linearly and because you used training data that captures any seasonality and you expect the response rate to keep fairly steady in the future.

I hope it helps,

Thanks,

Miguel