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Toni2
Lapis Lazuli | Level 10

Hi I have a time series, which i check it for stationarity using ADF test and arima proc 

 

proc arima data=&td19;
identify var=interest_rate stationarity=(adf=4);
run;
quit;

 

Below is the ADF test and trend & correlation analysis 

 

i started from the table from the bottom (trend model) and using the Tau compared it with 5% until to reject the null. i concluded that the series is stationary since 0.0315<0.05 zero mean model

 

However, when i see the ACF/PACF, based on my understanding, the series in not stationary. This is because the ACF decays slowly

 

My questions are : is this series stationary or not?

 

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Tests
Type Lags Rho Pr < Rho Tau Pr < Tau F Pr > F
Zero Mean 0 -2.7655 0.2517 -2.46 0.014    
  1 -5.0099 0.1214 -2.26 0.0237    
  2 -3.982 0.168 -2.21 0.027    
  3 -5.0286 0.1207 -2.27 0.0228    
  4 -4.2696 0.1532 -2.14 0.0315    
Single Mean 0 -2.5618 0.7064 -1.71 0.4237 3.03 0.2995
  1 -6.4379 0.3047 -2.17 0.2186 2.78 0.3619
  2 -4.6272 0.4645 -1.92 0.3218 2.49 0.437
  3 -6.5225 0.2983 -2.17 0.2192 2.8 0.3657
  4 -5.2232 0.4056 -1.93 0.315 2.39 0.4685
Trend 0 -3.4578 0.9132 -1.23 0.8994 1.52 0.8742
  1 -16.6892 0.1154 -2.83 0.1917 4.32 0.3133
  2 -10.7554 0.3659 -2.18 0.4973 2.8 0.6186
  3 -19.6884 0.0597 -2.79 0.2033 4.29 0.3316
  4 -15.4981 0.1473 -2.39 0.3834 3.22 0.5402

 

Toni2_0-1626171393131.png

 

 
2 REPLIES 2
Toni2
Lapis Lazuli | Level 10
thanks, i just posted!