Hi, Koen: Thank you so much. Even after reading the explanation on what "conditional forecast" and "unconditional forecast" are, I still cannot tell how the results will differ. I think it is necessary for us to understand how SAS generates the forecast. From the practitioner's perspective, we usually starting the forecast from the most recent observations (last observations in the estimation sample). The forecast will be very different if SAS actually starts from the earliest observations used in estimation. If we don't understand the difference, we will misinterpret the results.
... View more