I would actually start with your area's birth cohort: Children born 5 years prior = current kindergarten class.
You don't say whether you are looking for a single grade or total enrollment but I would look very closely at last years grades 1 through 11 + that birth cohort for this years estimate and see how well that actually matches your current year's enrollment.
You very likely could get a total birth cohort count from your vital records bureau for births to parents in a list of zip codes your district serves.
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