Hi all ,
I originally posted my question in the statistical procedures but maybe its better placed in this forum:
I'd like to perform Mincer-Zarnowitz regressions to test whether a forecast is associated with a forecast error that is unpredictable.
My equation is a simple OLS: Realized value = b0 + b1*Forecast.
Since my sample consists of yearly data, I run regressions annually, i.e. for each year I observe the coefficients for b0 and b1. In a next step, I build time-series averages for the coeffiicents, i.e. I build the mean over the yearly coefficients.
To see if there are systematic errors, I need to test whether the time-series average coefificent for the Forecast is statistically different from 1 using Newey West T statistics. For similar situations where I test if a sample mean of a series is statistically different from 0, I use the following procedure:
proc model data=two;
endo Forecast;
instruments / intonly;
parms b0;
Forecast=b0;
fit Forecast / gmm kernel=(bart,5,0) vardef=n;
run;
quit;
Is it possible to change this to 1? Otherwise, what would be the best way to get Newey West T-stats to test whether the coefficient for Forecast is statistically different from 1?
I already tried to add a test statement (e.g. test Forecast=1). However, I am afraid this delivers the Wald-test but not Newey West T stats.
Thanks in advance!
