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When Probabilistic Systems (LLMs) Pretend to Be Deterministic: A Lineage Case Study

Started ‎04-02-2026 by
Modified ‎04-02-2026 by
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Executive Summary – A Practical Example

 

Large Language Models (LLMs) and deterministic lineage engines address different classes of problems. This blog presents a concrete, reproducible demonstration—using macro‑heavy SAS code—showing where LLMs add value (contextual reasoning, explanation) and where they must not be used (deterministic lineage extraction). The conclusion is not that LLMs are “bad”, but that misusing them as engines of record is dangerous. The correct architecture is complementary: a deterministic lineage engine as the system of record, augmented by an LLM for explanation and insight.

 

Imagine entrusting the keys to your most critical regulatory, governance, and transformation initiatives—not to an unerring system of record, but to a probabilistic engine designed for creativity. Allowing an LLM to play both judge and historian—reasoning about context and dictating immutable lineage—is not just risky; it is dangerous. This is no academic quibble: BCBS239 regulatory compliance, change management, integration projects, code refactoring, transpilations, and any journey to AI demand lineage that is deterministic, repeatable, and audit‑defensible. Crucially, no amount of prompting or human reinforcement learning can eliminate the inherent risks.

 

LLMs, by their nature, are susceptible to silent omissions and opaque reasoning—responses that cannot be reliably audited or interrogated. Prompt engineering and human feedback may refine outputs, but they cannot guarantee completeness, transparency, or reproducibility when it matters most.

 

In this blog, we demonstrate—using macro-heavy SAS code—why only a deterministic lineage engine should ever be trusted as the system of record. LLMs are powerful allies for insight, not ultimate authorities. Misusing them as engines of record is more than a technical misstep: it is an existential threat to reliability, governance, and compliance in modern data estates. The only safe architecture is complementary: deterministic lineage systems set the record, LLMs illuminate the path.

 

Background and Motivation

 

Modern SAS estates commonly rely on:

  • Macro indirection (&&name&i),
  • Runtime metadata (PROC CONTENTS),
  • CALL EXECUTE,
  • SYMPUT / SYMPUTX, and
  • Mid‑stream macro overrides via repeated %include.

These features provide flexibility, but they also introduce runtime variability. For governance, regulation, change impact analysis, and integration projects, lineage must be deterministic, repeatable, and audit‑defensible. This blog evaluates whether LLMs can safely replace deterministic lineage engines for that purpose.

 

The Contract: What Deterministic Lineage Must Guarantee

 

A deterministic lineage system must:

  • Be correct for all possible executions of the code,
  • Produce byte‑for‑byte identical outputs for identical inputs,
  • Never guess runtime values,
  • Return explicit null when something cannot be determined statically,
  • Be machine‑consumable and audit‑defensible.

Anything that violates these guarantees is non‑compliant, regardless of how plausible it sounds.

 

Side‑by‑Side Evaluation

 

The tables below are reformatted to ensure clear rendering and unambiguous comparison. All identifiers are monospace‑formatted and columns are aligned for readability.

Tables

Dimension

Expected (Contract)

Deterministic Lineage Engine

LLM Output

Input tables

All sources named without assumption

SASHELP.CARS, SASHELP.CLASS

Same names listed

Intermediate tables

Captured if created

_CARS_SRC, _CARS_META, _MEASURE_STATS

Same names listed

Output tables

Do not assume execution

CARS_DYN, CARS_DYN2, CLASS_KEEP, CLASS_AGE

Assumes all outputs always exist

Conditional execution

Must be respected

Represented as conditional steps

Implicitly assumed

Cross‑run stability

Required

Stable

Not guaranteed

Verdict: LLMs can recognise table names; engines must model execution semantics.

 

Columns

Dimension

Expected (Contract)

Deterministic Lineage Engine

LLM Output

Output columns

Explicit per execution

Resolved columns per run

Narrative (e.g., “COL1..COLn”)

Metadata‑driven selection

Must not be guessed

Treated as dynamic

Implied stability

Phase overrides

Must be reflected

Phase‑specific resolution

⚠️ Mentioned only in prose

Machine‑usable

Required

Yes

No

Verdict: Describing how columns are built ≠ extracting deterministic lineage.

 

Expressions

Dimension

Expected (Contract)

Deterministic Lineage Engine

LLM Output

Derived expressions

Explicitly identified

UPCASE(MAKE), AVG(HEIGHT), …

Mentioned

Expression typing

Required

DIRECT / AGG / SQL_EXPR

Not classified

Dependency tracing

Required

Column‑level graph

Narrative only

Runtime sensitivity

Must be respected

Honoured

Emitted as static

Verdict: LLMs explain expressions; engines model and trace them.

 

Predicates (Critical)

Dimension

Expected (Contract)

Deterministic Lineage Engine

LLM Output

Predicate capture

Best‑effort

predicate_conditions

Textual

Boolean signature

Deterministic only

null when dynamic

Concrete WHERE clauses

Dynamic macros

Must collapse

Yes

Ignored

Cross‑run correctness

Required

Guaranteed

Broken

Audit defensibility

Required

Yes

No

Verdict: Guessing predicates is a category error and actively dangerous.

 

Concrete Failure vs Success Examples

 

Example: Dynamic WHERE Predicate

  • Code Reality: MAKE_UP = "&TARGET_MAKE" where TARGET_MAKE comes from data.
  • Engine Output: Predicate captured structurally; boolean_signature = null.
  • LLM Output: Concrete predicate (e.g., MAKE_UP = 'AUDI').

Result: Engine passes (stable and honest). LLM fails (false for other valid runs).

Example: Metadata‑Driven Column Selection

  • Code Reality: Columns derived from PROC CONTENTS and limited dynamically.
  • Engine Output: Emits actual resolved columns per execution.
  • LLM Output: “COL1..COLn (max 5)”.

Result: Engine produces usable lineage. LLM produces narrative.

 

Why Reinforcement Learning Does Not Fix This

 

The limitation is architectural, not a lack of training:

  • LLMs do not execute macro processors.
  • LLMs do not maintain symbol tables or execution phases.
  • LLMs optimize for likelihood, not proof.

No amount of reinforcement learning turns a probabilistic generator into a deterministic system of record.

 

Recommended Division of Labour

What LLMs Are Good At

  • Explaining intent and design patterns,
  • Summarizing complex logic,
  • Reasoning about why transformations exist,
  • Producing documentation and narratives.

What Deterministic Lineage Engines Must Do

  • Extract tables, columns, expressions, and predicates deterministically,
  • Produce stable, machine‑consumable lineage graphs,
  • Support regulation, change management, and integration,
  • Act as the system of record.

Principle: LLMs should reason about lineage; lineage engines must produce lineage.

 

Conclusion

 

This analysis shows that the question is not “Can an LLM do lineage?” but rather “What happens when we ask a probabilistic system to pretend to be deterministic?” The answer is fabricated certainty and governance risk. A probabilistic system wrapped in deterministic language does not become safe—it merely becomes harder to detect when it is wrong.

 

The correct outcome is not rejecting LLMs, but strictly containing their role within a complementary architecture. LLMs are invaluable for contextual reasoning, but lineage is a system of record—and systems of record must be deterministic.

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