Course: AI and Machine Learning Specialist
Module: Forecasting and Optimization Specialist
Submodule: Forecasting using Model Studio using SAS Viya
When dealing with Time-Series forecasting using a model that contains a moving-average term, what does SAS do when predicting future values and there are no actual values to difference from the predicted values for the MA term? Because the moving-average term uses some form of the difference between an actual value and predicted value, eventually, if enough predictions are made, there will be no actual values.
My question is: If an ARMA model is fit to the data and we've made enough future predictions to run out of historic actual values, does the original ARMA model used for predictions degenerate into a AR model?
If a moving-average model is fit to the data, do future predictions eventually degenerate into the series mean?
Thank you,
Bill Donaldson