Creating Analytical Variables for Modeling Purposes Using Dynamic Aggregations From Timeseries
Preamble
This article is about a new SAS Custom Step available in the public GitHub SAS Custom Step repository called DAFT. DAFT stands for Dynamic Aggregations From Timeseries and supports the creation of analytical variables out of time series data with a click of a button for use in modeling and other analytical purposes. Take a look at the following animation showcasing a potential workflow to interact with DAFT. Don't forget to continue reading this article to learn more about the details.
A New Data Wrangling Tool
Creating a variety of analytical variables for modeling purposes, e.g., forecasting or prediction models is crucial for creating a good scoring algorithm. The Dynamic Aggregations From Timeseries DAFT SAS Studio Custom Step enables SAS Studio Flow users to easily perform dynamic aggregations on timeseries data by the push of a button.
What Does Dynamic Exactly Mean?
Let's explain based on an example: often times the outcome of events is dependent on other past events. So, it is important to get the historic views of the data, from say four weeks ago, seven weeks, etc. In addition, how does it look when aggregating data from two weeks, three weeks, etc?
Real life examples would be:
- When looking at next product recommendations or purchase predictions, one important variable to look at is spending behavior, so questions like the following are important: What was the client behavior before they signed up for a credit card, e.g. how much did they spend over a month, three months before the sign up? And probably a good idea to feed in all kinds of combinations into the model and let the model decide which combination(s) are important for the desired outcome (dependent).
- When looking at harvest predictions of specific crops, one important variable to look at is precipitation, so questions like the following are important: What was the precipitation over two weeks and six weeks before the harvest date? And often time it is not known which combination of aggregations and lag are important, so having a variety of options entering the model and letting AI make the decision which combination to use in the model can be crucial.
As mentioned in the above examples, often times it is not known which time parameters are relevant, hence it might be important to create many combinations and then let the statistic decide which combination is influencial.
DAFT allows us to calculate a large number of combinations, if necessary. At this point, DAFT allows the following aggregation functions:
- sum
- mean
- min
- max
The aggregations are based on one of the following time units:
- day
- week
- month
- quarter
With time series data usually being very granular, aggregating to higher level is necessary to allow best results for analytic purposes. Usually, it depends on the problem of which granularity to choose.
The output dataset is then made available based on that chosen granularity.
Looking at an DAFT Example Setting
Weather data is available on a minute basis, and the problem at hand requires us to look at the data on a weekly basis. It is required we look at the total precipitation over one-week and two-weeks for both four-weeks and eight-weeks ago. Translated into DAFT terms, this would mean:
- The aggregation sequence that needs to be provided is: 1#2
- The lag sequence that needs to be provided is: 4#8
DAFT then creates all combinations between aggregation and lag sequence and the output variables would look like:
- precipitation_sum1L4
- precipitation_sum1L8
- precipitation_sum2L4
- precipitation_sum2L8
with "sum" describing the statistic for the variable, the number behind it describes the length based on the selected unit, and "L" describing the lag.
Since the granularity is "By Week", DAFT creates the following two time-variables:
- _DAFT_year
- _DAFT_week
Additionally, the output dataset contains the variables that describe the entity. In the weather example, this could the region/county level, or zip code level, etc.
In other examples, e.g., when the transaction data is bank data, the smallest entity could be person, household, company or parent company.
And for SAS Viya 4, it is easy to get your hands on DAFT
DAFT is available as a custom step, which means it only needs to upload the “step” file somewhere in SAS Content (see detailed upload instructions here ), and it's automatically available under “Shared” Steps in SAS Studio.
The DAFT SAS Studio Custom Step can be downloaded here .
Interacting With DAFT
Following are a few screenshots of the user experience when using the custom step. Each screenshot shows one tab in the custom step.
Input Data Tab
The complete options are spread out over two screenshots:
The “Input Data” tab contains all the parameters needed to determine which variables are needed, in which role.
Output Data Tab
Here the output granularity is determined.
Possible options are:
- By Day
- By Week
- By Month
- By Quarter
Processing Options Tab
This is the tab where I can set which combination of aggregations and lags DAFT should produce.
Admin Options Tab
Here are all kinds of settings available that control process execution.
About Tab
This tab contains all the necessary information for using DAFT. It also contains a description of all the parameters and some sample code that produces an example transaction file to play around with DAFT.
Take a Look - DAFT in Action
Where Can I Play around with DAFT?
Everything you need to run DAFT is available on Github here. This also contains a readme file with more information about all the parameters.
Final Thoughts
Please leave a comment and let me know what you think. Maybe you have some feature ideas? Also, share your experience with aggregating transaction table. I am curious to hear about your experience and can't wait to hear from you.
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