12-09-2014 04:59 PM
Suppose I have a collection of sets of numbers, lets say that each set has twenty five numbers in it (one for each day in a twenty five day period). Lets say I have 200 of these sets.
Are there any statistical methods which will help me to identify trends in the data which can predict (based on my existing sets) whether a new sets number on the 25th day day will be lower than on the first day?
For instance, suppose I am on the fifth day. Can I calculate a percentage chance that my last day will be lower than the first based on the number of observations I have so far?
Any guidance on methods that would point me in the right direction would be much appreciated. I'm using base SAS to analyze my datasets.
12-10-2014 11:31 AM
Sounds a lot like an autoregressive or moving average problem to me, with known coefficients (based on the 200 datasets). I would recommend cross posting to the Econometrics and Forecasting forum. Hopefully, or or one of the other folks who follow that forum regularly will have something to say on this.