07-13-2012 10:57 PM
I have the attached data set.
Table 1 Column D calculates the roll rate of outstanding balance from delinquency cycle_1 to cycle_1.
Table 1 Cell c28 shows the moving sum equation I have used to forecast the value of that cell based on previous 24 months actual data.
Column N of Table 2 applies the same forecasting equation for a known data range and column P calculates how well our prediction equation does the forecasting.
Sad to say that the % absolute deviation is way too unacceptable.
Could any one help me to improve this equation to increase the forecasting precision.
05-08-2013 06:30 PM
I have not completely reviewed your approach, but the first thing that jumps off the page at me is what appears to be a seasonal pattern that your method is not accounting for... look at June of each year for example. There is a significant drop off in roll rate each year at that time.
I see this post is over two years old.. I am sure you have figured this out by now.