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how do i generate a 99% prediction interval

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how do i generate a 99% prediction interval

data elvennine;
infile 'J:t11-4 trade employees.txt';
input emp;
run;

proc arima data=elvennine;
identify var=emp(1,12);
estimate q=(1)(12) noconstant printall plot;
forecast lead=12 out=pred ;
run;

I am wondering what do I add to the forecast statement so it will give me a 99% pred interval, instead of just the standard 9 % confidence one
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Posts: 1,319

Re: how do i generate a 99% prediction interval

Hi There,

The default is 95% confidence intervals. To specify an alternative confidence interval you can set the alpha option to your significance level e.g. alpha=0.01...

proc arima data=elvennine;
identify var=emp(1,12);
estimate q=(1)(12) noconstant printall plot;
forecast lead=12 out=pred alpha=0.01;
run;

Check out the PROC ARIMA syntax at http://support.sas.com/documentation/cdl/en/etsug/63348/HTML/default/viewer.htm#etsug_arima_sect024....

Hope this is what you were after.

Cheers,
Michelle
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