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10-13-2017 09:25 PM

I am attempting to run the Schwartz and Smith (2000) short term long term model for futures pricing. I have a highly nonlinear constrained function( with a kalman filter) that I'm trying to minimize through a call nlpqn. The problem is that the nlpqn subroutine has no iterations and doesnt move from the starting values even when using large combination of starting values through a do loop. Is there anything I can change with the termination criteria that will get the values to move from their initial starting value? The model has 7 parameters and two state variables so visualizing any good starting values is out the window.

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Posted in reply to RobertThompson

10-16-2017 08:30 AM

Please provide the code you are using and the output that you see. Are there any WARNING or ERROR messages in the SAS log? If so, please provide.

When you say that the parameters "do not move from their initial starting value," it sounds like the NLPQN routine thinks that it is already at an extremum. This can happen in two ways:

- if you misspecify the derivative information that NLPQN uses to evaluate the gradient. Have you defined a function to evaluate the gradients? If so, read "Two hints for specifying derivatives" to ensure that your function is working correctly.
- If you did not define your own analytical derivatives, then the most likely problem is that your objective function is not correctly evaluating the input arguments. If it returns the same value for all inputs, then NLPQN thinks it is a constant function, therefore will not improve the initial guess.

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Posted in reply to Rick_SAS

10-16-2017 05:16 PM

```
dm log 'clear' output ;
dm output 'clear' output;
libname new "C:\Users\rst133\Dropbox\Thesis\Data Preparation\hogs";
ods html close; /*ods html;*/
/*ods graphics off;
ods exclude all;
ods noresults;*/
ods listing;
filename myoutput 'C:\Users\rst133\Dropbox\Thesis\Schwartz and Smith Model\Pre1996hogs\printfile'; /* change this accordingly */
filename mylog 'C:\Users\rst133\Dropbox\Thesis\Schwartz and Smith Model\Pre1996hogs\logfile'; /* change this accordingly */
proc printto log=mylog print=myoutput new;
run;
proc iml;
*reset print;
use new.hogfuturespre1996;
read all into data;
Num_Contracts = 6;
matur = j(6,1,0);
do i = 1 to 6;
matur[i,] = ((i-1)*4+1)/12;
end;
dt = 7/360;
* SELECT INITIAL VALUES ;
/* k = 1.489003;
sigmax = 0.276;*139252;
lambdax = 0.155066;
mu = -0.0213;
sigmae = 0.137067;
rnmu = 0.0115;
rho = 0.310058;
psi7 = k // sigmax // lambdax // mu // sigmae // rnmu // rho;*/
s_guess = 0.0000001;
init_dim = 7;
y = data[,6:(Num_Contracts+4)]; * y is a {nobs x N} Matrix, N = number of future contracts, nobs = number of observations;
nobs = nrow(y);
N = ncol(y);
boundary = 1e300; /* bounderies for constraints */
nboundary = -1*1e300;
start liklhd(x0,C0) global(y,c,d,G,F,V,N,nobs,dt,psi,matur,s_guess);
x0 = {4.24 0}; /* Initial state vector m(t)=E[xt;et] 1x2 */
C0 = {0.1 0.1, 0.1 0.1}; /* Initial covariance matrix for the state variables W(t)=cov[xt,et];*/
m = ncol(x0); * m = Number of state variables (number of rows in a0);
/* THE TRANSITION EQUATION */
* Extracting initial parameter values from initial psi ;
k = psi[1,];
sigmax = psi[2,];
lambdax = psi[3,];
mu = psi[4,];
sigmae = psi[5,];
rnmu = psi[6,];
rho = psi[7,];
/* NOTATION: x(t)=c+G*x(t-1)+n(t) n~N(0,R) */
c = j(m,1,0); * c is a {m x 1} Vector;
c[m,] = mu*dt;
G = i(m); * G is a {m x m} Matrix;
G[1,1] = exp(-k*dt);
* Defining R = var[n(t)] and W = var[w(t)];
W11=(1-exp(-2*k*dt))*((sigmax)**2)/(2*k); /* equation 3(b) in S&S */
W12=(1-exp(-k*dt))*((rho*sigmax*sigmae)/k);
W22=((sigmae)**2)*dt;
W=i(m);
W[1,1]=W11; W[1,2]=W12; W[2,1]=W12; W[2,2]=W22;
R=i(m);
/* THE MEASUREMENT EQUATION */
/* NOTATION: y(t)=d(t)+F(t)'x(t)+v(t) v~N(0,V) */
d = j(N,1,0); * d is a {N x 1} Vector;
F = j(N,m,0); * F is a {N x m} Matrix;
do i=1 to N;
d1=rnmu*matur[i]-(1-exp(-k*matur[i]))*(lambdax/k); /* equation (9) in S&S */
d2=(1-exp(-2*k*matur[i]))*((sigmax)**2)/(2*k);
d3=((sigmae)**2)*matur[i];
d4=2*(1-exp(-k*matur[i]))*((rho*sigmax*sigmae)/k);
d[i,1]=d1+0.5*(d2+d3+d4);
F[i,1]=exp(-k*matur[i]);
F[i,2]=1;
end;
* Measurment errors Var-Cov Matrix: Cov[v(t)]=V;
V_N = j(1,N,s_guess);
V = diag(V_N);
var = block(R,V); /* for Kalman Filter routine */
nz = nrow(G); nn = nrow(y); nk = ncol(y);
call kalcvf(pred,vpred,filt,vfilt,y,0,c,G,d,F,var,x0,C0);
et = y - pred*F`;
sum1 = 0; sum2 = 0;
do i = 1 to nn;
vpred_i = vpred[(i-1)*nz+1:i*nz,];
et_i = et[i,];
et_i1=et_i`;
ft = F*vpred_i*F` + var[nz+1:nz+nk,nz+1:nz+nk];
sum1 = sum1 + log(det(ft));
sum2 = sum2 + et_i*inv(ft)*et_i1;
sum = sum1 + sum2;
end;
return(sum);
finish;
start loglik(y);
nn = nrow(y); nn = nrow(y); nk = ncol(y);
pi = constant('pi');
const = nk*nn*log(2*pi);
sum = liklhd(x0,C0);
log_l=(-.5*const-.5*(sum)/(nk*nn));
return(log_L);
finish;
rank = 0;
do ii1 = 3.48 to 3.48 by 1;
do ii2 = 0.276 to 0.336 by 0.06;
do ii3 = 0.118 to 0.158 by 0.04;
do ii4 = -0.0225 to 0.0125 by 0.035;
do ii5 = 0.001 to 0.151 by 0.05;
do ii6 = 0.00125 to 0.01125 by 0.01;
do ii7 = 0.29 to 0.31 by 0.02;
rank = rank + 1;
k = ii1;
sigmax = ii2;
lambdax = ii3;
mu = ii4;
sigmae = ii5;
rnmu = ii6;
rho = ii7;
psi7 = k // sigmax // lambdax // mu // sigmae // rnmu // rho;
psi = j((init_dim+N),1,0);
psi = psi7 // s_guess // s_guess // s_guess // s_guess // s_guess;
bounds = j(2,(init_dim+N),.);
nb = ncol(bounds) - 2;
lb = j((init_dim+N),1,0);
lb7 = repeat(nboundary,init_dim,1);
lb7[1] = 0; lb7[2] = 0; lb7[5] = 0; lb7[7] = -1;
lb5 = repeat(0.000000001,5,1);
lb = lb7 // lb5;
ub = j((init_dim+N),1,0);
ub6 = repeat(boundary,6,1);
ub7 = 1;
ub5 = repeat(boundary,5,1);
ub = ub6 // ub7 // ub5;
do jj = 1 to nb;
bounds[1,jj] = lb[jj,];
bounds[2,jj] = ub[jj,];
end;
opt = {0 5 . 1};
tc = {2000 5000};
call nlpqn(rc,psi_opt, "loglik", psi, opt, bounds, tc,,,,,);
psi_opt1 = t(psi_opt);
sumd = 0;
do i = 1 to 7;
sumd = sumd + abs(psi[i,] - psi_opt[i]);
end;
if sumd > 0 then do;
print rank sumd psi_opt1 psi;
end;
end;
end;
end;
end;
end;
end;
end;
quit;
proc printto;
run;
quit;
```

Attached are the .txt files I am printing output and log to as well as a copy of the code.

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Posted in reply to RobertThompson

10-16-2017 05:29 PM

Im sorry I added the wrong log and print files to that last message.

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Posted in reply to RobertThompson

10-16-2017 05:59 PM

OK, so as I suspected the gradient is being evaluated as exactly zero, which is why no iterations are being performed.

Before you start optimizing, you need to manually make sure that the objective function is working correctly. See

"Ten tips before you run an optimization." I suspect that you need to begin with Tip #1.

I cannot follow your long complicated program, but it looks like the problem is the way you are defining the LOGLIK function. The initial value of the local variable y is the vector of parameters PSI. Then NLPQN tries to approximate gradients by varying elements of the argument y. It sets y=PSI + dPSI. But it looks like the LOGLIK will return the same value because you are not passing y down into the LIKLHD function.

I see that you used PSI as a global variable in LIKLHD (and many other unnecessary globals). Perhaps you think that PSI is getting updated by the optimizer, but that is not how the optimizer works. The optimizer will call LOGLIK with various values of y, so you need to make sure LOGLIK is working correctly.

I strongly encourage you to start with a simpler problem and learn how to use NLPQN on a simple problem. Then use the Tips in the article to guide your programming.

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Posted in reply to Rick_SAS

10-20-2017 04:22 PM

I had neglected to define the vector of parameters within the module. Once I defined them the program worked like a charm. Thanks for the help.