How does independent variables affect forecast models

[CP_David]

Hello gurus,

I am wondering if someone can shed some light into this for me. Every month, we load some new Macro Ecomonic indications to our input dataset for the projects. These indicators form a set of available variable for our forecasters to select into the independent variables. My question is, how do these independent variable impact the overal forecast models? What sort of logic or calculation is done in the background? Any insights are highly appreciated.

Thanks in advance.
David

[deleted_user]

Hi David,

I don't know the answer , but I have the same question, actually.

Where do you get the macro Economic Indicators ? Is there any free online sources ?

Thanks,
Jeannie

[udo_sas]

David -
There are 2 types of model families which allow you to include independent variables in SAS Forecast Server:
a) ARIMAX
b) UCM
You will find a brief overview of how these techniques work in this whitepaper: "Large-Scale Automatic Forecasting Using Inputs and Calendar Events" - available here:http://www.sas.com/reg/wp/corp/3478

More details are provided in SAS online help.
--Udo

Message was edited by: udo@sas