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Getting confidence Intervals

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Getting confidence Intervals

I have monthly deactivation data  and i want to forecast 6 months into the future with SAS forecast studio for desktop. If  a month has more weekend days this year then deactivations will be lower / if less weekend days in the month the more deactivations. one way i thought of taking care of this is to calculate avg daily deactivations each month (based on working days of the month) then multiply the predictions by the working days in each predicted month. Question is How can i calculate the new Confidence Intervals?

 

Thanks


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‎01-07-2016 09:43 AM
SAS Super FREQ
Posts: 93

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

i just took a look that the data, i don't think the data in the forecast horizon periods are populated correctly.

1. I assumed the Region is the BY variable. There should be no missing values in the horizon periods.

2. You should populate the weekdays variable for each of the BY variable.

 

Please take a look at the attached worksheet with the correct horizon data.

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SAS Super FREQ
Posts: 93

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

There are 2 approaches on top of my head:
1. create an input variable "number of weekend days" and incorporate it into the model (has to be either UCM or ARIMA)

2. Use the ADJUSTMENT option to first pre-adjust the monthly series, forecast the adjusted series, and post-adjust the forecasts. Forecast studio will compute the adjusted CI for you.
Contributor
Posts: 60

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

Posted in reply to alexchien

I did that but have the following challenge: I have the number of working days for the months i have data how can SAS know the number of working days in the predicted months so the prediction is multiplied byt the number of working days?

SAS Super FREQ
Posts: 93

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

you will need to populate the input/adjustment variables for the forecast horizon periods, not just the historical periods.
Contributor
Posts: 60

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

Posted in reply to alexchien

ok I did that seems to be working but i noticed the following with the C.I see attached. Very narrow,but not for the out of sample predictions, any explanation for that?

 

 

 


c.i.PNG
SAS Super FREQ
Posts: 93

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

would you be able to share the data with me? Something is missing but it is hard to tell from the forecast plot. thanks
Contributor
Posts: 60

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

Posted in reply to alexchien

find attached.

thanks

Contributor
Posts: 60

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

Posted in reply to alexchien

X1 is the dependent var

Solution
‎01-07-2016 09:43 AM
SAS Super FREQ
Posts: 93

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

i just took a look that the data, i don't think the data in the forecast horizon periods are populated correctly.

1. I assumed the Region is the BY variable. There should be no missing values in the horizon periods.

2. You should populate the weekdays variable for each of the BY variable.

 

Please take a look at the attached worksheet with the correct horizon data.

Contributor
Posts: 60

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

Posted in reply to alexchien

thank you!!!

Super User
Posts: 19,770

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

See if you can switch to more granular data at all, if you have daily data, it may be worth working at a week level.
Contributor
Posts: 60

Re: Getting confidence Intervals

at this point can't get more granular data.

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