05-13-2015 09:53 AM
I'm working on Forecasting a variable, and my model performance and MAPE is very good with Week settings rather than monthly basis. but my target is to forecast on monthly basis.
how do I convert the weekly forecast into monthly forecast.....?
please provide some inputs.
05-19-2015 11:13 AM
Hi Naresh, If your "months" are based on some specified aggregation of weeks (such as 4/4/5 weeks per month in the 3 month quarter), you could just aggregate your weekly forecasts accordingly.
If your "months" are actual calendar months, then there is no sure way to map the weekly forecasts to monthly. In that case one option is to split the weekly forecasts into days (you'll have to figure out how best to do that), and then aggregate to calendar month. Or simply aggregate your historical data by calendar month and start forecasting in monthly buckets.
Or, if you are satisfied with the quality of the weekly forecasts, perhaps you can convince your management that they should be using weekly forecasts instead of monthly. I don't know your industry, but in most supply chain situations, forecasting and planning in weekly buckets is most appropriate.