BookmarkSubscribeRSS Feed
harsh0404
Fluorite | Level 6

I am trying to find customer future value. I am using a very simple formula here. cfv for year 1 = yearly gross margin or profit * probability of retention. Now if I want to find cfv for year 2, then its the same formula but I want to find out probability of retention of customer in year 2. How do I do it?
I could assume probability of retention is constant but in my survival analysis it follows a non linear curve. So its definitely not constant. Most customers drop by year 1, 2 , 3 and then it becomes constant.
Here my target variable is if customer churned or not. I got probability of retention from modelling results.

1 REPLY 1
Reeza
Super User

Wouldn't you get the retention (survival/failure rate) from your survival analysis and apply it to your data? PROC LIFETEST or PROC PHREG can give you the survival rates depending on the complexity of the model.

 

A lot of this depends on your data structure so if you show what you have and what you've done so far, we can probably recommend the next steps from there. 

 


@harsh0404 wrote:

I am trying to find customer future value. I am using a very simple formula here. cfv for year 1 = yearly gross margin or profit * probability of retention. Now if I want to find cfv for year 2, then its the same formula but I want to find out probability of customer in year 2. How do I do it?
I could assume probability of retention is constant but in my survival analysis it follows a non linear curve. So its definitely not constant. Most customers drop by year 1, 2 , 3 and then it becomes constant.
Here my target variable is if customer churned or not. I got probability of retention from modelling results.


 

sas-innovate-2024.png

Available on demand!

Missed SAS Innovate Las Vegas? Watch all the action for free! View the keynotes, general sessions and 22 breakouts on demand.

 

Register now!

How to choose a machine learning algorithm

Use this tutorial as a handy guide to weigh the pros and cons of these commonly used machine learning algorithms.

Find more tutorials on the SAS Users YouTube channel.

Discussion stats
  • 1 reply
  • 971 views
  • 0 likes
  • 2 in conversation