Presentation by: Anders Milhøj, Copenhagen University
November 17, 2020
The lecture analyzes the relationship between consumer prices for cigarettes and the actual taxed sale of cigarettes using the procedures VARMAX, X12, ARIMA and UCM from the SAS/ETS® package. Data are official figures from Statistics Denmark and the Ministry of Taxation. The result shows a price elasticity of about 0.6, which means that the answer in a truly academic way is a "well, …", because a price increase partly leads to less taxed sales, but that the decline in cigarette sales is not completely reflected in the increased price.
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