SAS Forum Nordics 2020: Could raising taxes on cigarettes reduce smoking in Denmark?

[DorteBrix]

Presentation by: Anders Milhøj, Copenhagen University 

November 17, 2020

Abstract:

The lecture analyzes the relationship between consumer prices for cigarettes and the actual taxed sale of cigarettes using the procedures VARMAX, X12, ARIMA and UCM from the SAS/ETS® package. Data are official figures from Statistics Denmark and the Ministry of Taxation. The result shows a price elasticity of about 0.6, which means that the answer in a truly academic way is a "well, …", because a price increase partly leads to less taxed sales, but that the decline in cigarette sales is not completely reflected in the increased price. 

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