https://communities.sas.com/t5/Statistical-Procedures/Proc-ESM-just-repeats-numbers/m-p/827215#M40962 <P>I am forecasting 3 months weekly data based on 48 weeks of data. One year has roughly 52 weeks of data. So 48 weeks of data is less than a year. When using proc esm, some models (addwinter, seasonal) just use the same numbers from historical week n to predict future week n. For ex, if my historical week 1 is of 163 , historical week 2 is 115, historical week 3 is 97... . My forecast week 1 also has 163, forecast week 2 has 115, forecast week3 has 97...Is this caused by lack of sufficient data?&nbsp;</P> Thu, 04 Aug 2022 19:50:01 GMT pjy1006 2022-08-04T19:50:01Z https://communities.sas.com/t5/Statistical-Procedures/Proc-ESM-just-repeats-numbers/m-p/827215#M40962 <P>I am forecasting 3 months weekly data based on 48 weeks of data. One year has roughly 52 weeks of data. So 48 weeks of data is less than a year. When using proc esm, some models (addwinter, seasonal) just use the same numbers from historical week n to predict future week n. For ex, if my historical week 1 is of 163 , historical week 2 is 115, historical week 3 is 97... . My forecast week 1 also has 163, forecast week 2 has 115, forecast week3 has 97...Is this caused by lack of sufficient data?&nbsp;</P> Thu, 04 Aug 2022 19:50:01 GMT https://communities.sas.com/t5/Statistical-Procedures/Proc-ESM-just-repeats-numbers/m-p/827215#M40962 pjy1006 2022-08-04T19:50:01Z https://communities.sas.com/t5/Statistical-Procedures/Proc-ESM-just-repeats-numbers/m-p/827336#M40966 Plz post it at Forecast Forum since PROC ESM is under SAS/ETS module.<BR /><BR /><A href="https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/bd-p/forecasting_econometrics" target="_blank">https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/bd-p/forecasting_econometrics</A> Fri, 05 Aug 2022 12:28:21 GMT https://communities.sas.com/t5/Statistical-Procedures/Proc-ESM-just-repeats-numbers/m-p/827336#M40966 Ksharp 2022-08-05T12:28:21Z