https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Procedures/Ten-year-probability/m-p/25428#M5768 In logistic regression, if the dependent variable is the binary outcome at 10 years, then the model can produce the predicted probability for each observation at 10 years. The average of the individual predicted probabilities is the expected event rate for the study group. You can develop the model on one group and apply it to another group.<BR /> <BR /> It's a bit messier to obtain (and explain) for Cox regression, but it's documented in the PHREG details.<BR /> <BR /> Doc Muhlbaier<BR /> Duke Thu, 30 Apr 2009 19:10:50 GMT Doc_Duke 2009-04-30T19:10:50Z https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Procedures/Ten-year-probability/m-p/25427#M5767 How to calculated 10-year probability?<BR /> <BR /> It seem that the probability can be found in Cox Regression or Logistic regression . How?<BR /> <BR /> Thanks Thu, 30 Apr 2009 06:50:32 GMT https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Procedures/Ten-year-probability/m-p/25427#M5767 deleted_user 2009-04-30T06:50:32Z https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Procedures/Ten-year-probability/m-p/25428#M5768 In logistic regression, if the dependent variable is the binary outcome at 10 years, then the model can produce the predicted probability for each observation at 10 years. The average of the individual predicted probabilities is the expected event rate for the study group. You can develop the model on one group and apply it to another group.<BR /> <BR /> It's a bit messier to obtain (and explain) for Cox regression, but it's documented in the PHREG details.<BR /> <BR /> Doc Muhlbaier<BR /> Duke Thu, 30 Apr 2009 19:10:50 GMT https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Procedures/Ten-year-probability/m-p/25428#M5768 Doc_Duke 2009-04-30T19:10:50Z