PROC ARIMA Forecast "The value for option LEAD= has been reduced to 0."

kwilz — Mon, 14 Nov 2022 06:44:29 GMT

Hello,

Working on forecasting sales for my business. I have weekly sales data from 01/07/18 to 6/19/22.

I generated a Seasonal ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) 7 No Intercept model. I am running the code below and am getting the messages. I am new to this and am unsure how to correct to see forecasted values. Thank you.

Warning:

More values of input variable AO104 are needed.

Warning:

More values of input variable AO153 are needed.

The value for option LEAD= has been reduced to 0.

data SalesWeatherWeeklyData10_25_22; 
set SalesWeatherWeeklyData10_25_22; 
if _N_ = 104 then AO104 = 1; else AO104 = 0; 
if _N_ = 153 then AO153 = 1; else AO153 = 0; 
run; 

PROC ARIMA DATA = SalesWeatherWeeklyData10_25_22 PLOTS=ALL; 
IDENTIFY VAR = Sales(1, 7) crosscorr = (AO104(1,7) AO153(1,7)); 
ESTIMATE p=2 q=(7 )  NOCONSTANT input = (AO104 AO153) METHOD = ML ;
outlier maxnum=20 alpha=0.001;
forecast printall lead=4 out=results1;
RUN;
QUIT;

Re: PROC ARIMA Forecast "The value for option LEAD= has been reduced to 0."

Ksharp — Mon, 14 Nov 2022 11:59:07 GMT

Plz post it at Forecast Forum.

https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/bd-p/forecasting_econometrics

topic Re: PROC ARIMA Forecast "The value for option LEAD= has been reduced to 0." in SAS Programming

PROC ARIMA Forecast "The value for option LEAD= has been reduced to 0."

Re: PROC ARIMA Forecast "The value for option LEAD= has been reduced to 0."