topic Re: How to estimate the infection rate of Covid 19 using confirmed cases and dates data in SAS Programming

How to estimate the infection rate of Covid 19 using confirmed cases and dates data

Gunjika — Sat, 27 Jun 2020 22:21:32 GMT

Dear SASers,

I urgently need your help... I have the following data:

data covid.covidppr;
input numdays confirm_cumul;
datalines;
1 1
2 3
3 3
4 3
5 3
6 34
7 82
8 414
9 1401
10 4989
11 13435
12 29800
13 59251
;

How can I use this information to compute the infection rate of Covid 19? The data is non-linear and fits polynomial and logarithmic regression trendlines very well. If infection rate can be estimated through regression curve fitting, please guide me. Can someone please let me understand the computation and the SAS code to do so? Thanks in advance.

Re: How to estimate the infection rate of Covid 19 using confirmed cases and dates data

Reeza — Sun, 28 Jun 2020 01:50:39 GMT

Whats the definition of an infection rate?

Re: How to estimate the infection rate of Covid 19 using confirmed cases and dates data

PGStats — Sun, 28 Jun 2020 02:44:16 GMT

Do you mean Infection Rates as defined in this paper?

https://healthcentricadvisors.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Cal_Inf_Rates.pdf

Re: How to estimate the infection rate of Covid 19 using confirmed cases and dates data

Gunjika — Sun, 28 Jun 2020 09:09:04 GMT

Dear PG,

Thanx for your reply. The thing is that the "infection rate" mentioned in this paper is "Incidence Rate".

Re: How to estimate the infection rate of Covid 19 using confirmed cases and dates data

Gunjika — Sun, 28 Jun 2020 09:21:03 GMT

Dear Reeza and PG,

I want something like what they have done in this paper, under section 3.3 "Estimation of infection rate".

Dear PG, in the context of Covid-19, the term "infection rate" is used interchangeably with the term "transmission rate".

Re: How to estimate the infection rate of Covid 19 using confirmed cases and dates data

Reeza — Mon, 29 Jun 2020 01:38:23 GMT

And you can see from either of these definitions you need population numbers or at risk numbers and we don't have that information.

Re: How to estimate the infection rate of Covid 19 using confirmed cases and dates data

Ksharp — Mon, 29 Jun 2020 12:10:58 GMT

@Rick_SAS wrote a blog about Covid 19 culumutive freq.

It is like Logistic Curve , could try e^x/(1+e^x) curve and PROC NLIN .