topic Re: PROC ARIMA forecasting daily time series data in SAS Forecasting and Econometrics

PROC ARIMA forecasting daily time series data

santisouknee — Thu, 16 May 2024 04:37:07 GMT

Dear All,

I am quite a new user using SAS software. Please give me some suggestion base on the scenario below:

1. I have time series data for almost 2 years, which records the date and the amount of money that earn daily but in this case user record the data only weekdays (data for sat and sun is empty).

2. Base on the data i have, i try to identified, include dummy variables, estimate and got the satisfied model to do forecasting. This also include the cosscorr pamarameter.

3. However, when i try to run forecasting by using

proc arima data=data ;
identify var=money crosscorr=(Monday Tuesday Thursday Friday );
estimate input=(Monday Tuesday Thursday Friday )
p= (0) (21)
q= (1) (0);
forecast lead=30 interval=day id=date out=results;
run;

i got an error "The value for option LEAD= has been reduced to 0." and the results that i got is generate only for the trained variable. The lead forecasting is not generate for me. I am not sure the forecast syntax is working with my data struture or not.

Please feel free to leave some comments on this or please share some ideas how can i solve this issue.

Regards,

santisouk

Re: PROC ARIMA forecasting daily time series data

ballardw — Thu, 16 May 2024 14:27:23 GMT

Can you provide an example of your data as a working data step? Remove any variables not relevant to the process and code attempted so far.

I am not expert in ARIMA but example data will likely help someone that knows more answer your question.

If you cannot generate such a set then Instructions here: https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Communities-Library/How-to-create-a-data-step-version-of-your-data-AKA-generate/ta-p/258712 will show how to turn an existing SAS data set into data step code that can be pasted into a forum code box using the </> icon or attached as text to show exactly what you have and that we can test code against. Pasting the code into a text box is important as the message windows on the forum reformat pasted text an may result in data step code that will not run correctly.

Re: PROC ARIMA forecasting daily time series data

SASCom1 — Thu, 16 May 2024 17:23:01 GMT

Hello @santisouknee

You may take a look at the following thread discussing similar issue in generating future forecast in PROC ARIMA with input variables:

https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/PROC-ARIMA-Forecast-quot-The-value-for-option-LEAD-has-been/m-p/844239

Please let me know if you have a different situation than discussed there, and if so, I will take a further look.

Re: PROC ARIMA forecasting daily time series data

santisouknee — Thu, 16 May 2024 18:34:36 GMT

Hi,

Thank you for you information. The question is similar, but provide me as a guidline to modified my code and now it's work !

Thank you,

santisouknee

Re: PROC ARIMA forecasting daily time series data

santisouknee — Thu, 16 May 2024 18:37:11 GMT

Hi there,

Thank you for provide a good comments, i will keep that in mind when posting another dissucssion. Now the problem is solved. 🙂

Regards,

santisouknee