topic Re: Simple Exponential Smoothing in SAS Forecasting and Econometrics

Simple Exponential Smoothing

parmis — Fri, 31 May 2019 14:48:47 GMT

Hello,

I'm using an expo model to forecast a variable monthly for a year. The problem is I get the exact same number for every month. I figured If I change the trend number to 2 or 3 then I get different forecast numbers every month but the forecast wouldn't be accurate. I have a constant model with a very slow moving trend so I thought trend=1 would be the right choise. any suggestions on how to handle this issue?

proc forecast data=have interval=month lead=12

method=expo weight=0.2 trend=1

out=want outset=est;

var price;

id date;

run;

Thanks!

Re: Simple Exponential Smoothing

PaigeMiller — Fri, 31 May 2019 15:15:23 GMT

The answer is in the documentation at:

https://documentation.sas.com/?docsetId=etsug&docsetTarget=etsug_forecast_syntax02.htm&docsetVersion=14.3&locale=en

Re: Simple Exponential Smoothing

mitrov — Fri, 31 May 2019 16:50:13 GMT

PROC FORECAST is superseded by PROC ESM. PROC ESM optimizes the weights of the smoothing model. I recommend you use PROC ESM instead.