topic Re: Level Shift Outlier in Forecasting in SAS Forecasting and Econometrics https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/Level-Shift-Outlier-in-Forecasting/m-p/499355#M3360 <P>no, I mean since 1/(1-B) is as a constant, something must be doing to the equation before I plug in the valued of I(49).......because I'm going to count it manually</P> Thu, 27 Sep 2018 03:19:37 GMT sasgiaz 2018-09-27T03:19:37Z Level Shift Outlier in Forecasting https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/Level-Shift-Outlier-in-Forecasting/m-p/498336#M3354 <P>Hello again,</P><P>I've been doing a project where I use ARI(1,1) with outliers as the model for forecasting.</P><P>I'm planning to do the forecast manually through Ms. Excel but I find a problem.</P><P>So, here's the model.</P><P><span class="lia-inline-image-display-wrapper lia-image-align-inline" image-alt="models.PNG" style="width: 318px;"><img src="https://communities.sas.com/t5/image/serverpage/image-id/23478i55042F26232A02DC/image-size/large?v=v2&amp;px=999" role="button" title="models.PNG" alt="models.PNG" /></span></P><P>The problem is I don't know what will happen to the 1/(1-B) if the I(49) valued as 1.</P><P>Thankyou so much for your consideration to help me solve this problem.</P><P>Best regards.</P> Mon, 24 Sep 2018 09:48:09 GMT https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/Level-Shift-Outlier-in-Forecasting/m-p/498336#M3354 sasgiaz 2018-09-24T09:48:09Z Re: Level Shift Outlier in Forecasting https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/Level-Shift-Outlier-in-Forecasting/m-p/498349#M3355 <P>But you can plug-in the value 1 and see what will happen ...</P> Mon, 24 Sep 2018 10:58:28 GMT https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/Level-Shift-Outlier-in-Forecasting/m-p/498349#M3355 PaigeMiller 2018-09-24T10:58:28Z Re: Level Shift Outlier in Forecasting https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/Level-Shift-Outlier-in-Forecasting/m-p/499355#M3360 <P>no, I mean since 1/(1-B) is as a constant, something must be doing to the equation before I plug in the valued of I(49).......because I'm going to count it manually</P> Thu, 27 Sep 2018 03:19:37 GMT https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/Level-Shift-Outlier-in-Forecasting/m-p/499355#M3360 sasgiaz 2018-09-27T03:19:37Z