topic Re: Question on ARIMA Time Series in SAS Forecasting and Econometrics

Question on ARIMA Time Series

Crubal — Tue, 11 Jul 2017 14:36:10 GMT

Hi,

I have a question on ARIMA Time Series model.

It is Hospitality industry historical booking data. If a customer make a booking, then Type = 'Booking'; If a customer cancelled the booking, then Type = 'Cancel'. And its original 'Booking' disappears.

Demand forecasting model uses ARIMA Time series model, and it uses historical demand as input only where Type = 'Booking' (Not using cancellation) Does it mean the output for demand forecatsing only inlude pure 'Booking' not 'Cancelation'?

Thank you!

Re: Question on ARIMA Time Series

stat_sas — Tue, 11 Jul 2017 15:48:03 GMT

Hi,

This question is related to logic how to define variable being used for ARIMA model. If you are taking only "booking" then consider those customers who booked and showed up for further analysis.

Re: Question on ARIMA Time Series

Crubal — Tue, 11 Jul 2017 15:57:25 GMT

Thank you! Which means if I only take 'Booking' then forecasting output should only be 'Booked and Showed up' for future days?

Re: Question on ARIMA Time Series

stat_sas — Tue, 11 Jul 2017 16:09:02 GMT

I mean this would be based on your requirement. If a customer booked and then cancelled resulting no transaction for analysis.

Re: Question on ARIMA Time Series

Crubal — Tue, 11 Jul 2017 17:25:00 GMT

Thank you for your reply! Sorry I didn't explain very clearly.

In my situation, if a customer booked and then canncelled, the row of 'Booking' disappears and a new row of 'Cancel' comes out.

If I just used 'Booking' as input, shall I assume my output for demand forecasting will only include 'Booking' part that already excludes cancellations if the model is good.

Re: Question on ARIMA Time Series

stat_sas — Tue, 11 Jul 2017 23:12:48 GMT

What is the cancellation rate? Also, what is time interval for the time sereies and why do you think ARIMA is a good model for your data?