https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/how-to-understand-the-residual-white-noise-test/m-p/361521#M2379 <P>Hi guys,</P><P>&nbsp;</P><P>I have build a forecast model, finding that the result of the residual white noise test as below attachment,and all the model's parameters are significant，so what does it mean? does&nbsp;it means there are still some useful information in resudial series?how can i improve the model?</P><P>&nbsp;</P><P>Looking forward to your reply.</P><P>BR,</P><P>Amy_q</P><P>&nbsp;</P><P>&nbsp;</P><BR /><IMG src="https://communities.sas.com/t5/image/serverpage/image-id/13879i8E77F0B6808DE776/image-size/large?v=1.0&amp;px=600" border="0" alt="wn.PNG" title="wn.PNG" /> Thu, 25 May 2017 10:28:09 GMT Amy_q 2017-05-25T10:28:09Z https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/how-to-understand-the-residual-white-noise-test/m-p/361521#M2379 <P>Hi guys,</P><P>&nbsp;</P><P>I have build a forecast model, finding that the result of the residual white noise test as below attachment,and all the model's parameters are significant，so what does it mean? does&nbsp;it means there are still some useful information in resudial series?how can i improve the model?</P><P>&nbsp;</P><P>Looking forward to your reply.</P><P>BR,</P><P>Amy_q</P><P>&nbsp;</P><P>&nbsp;</P><BR /><IMG src="https://communities.sas.com/t5/image/serverpage/image-id/13879i8E77F0B6808DE776/image-size/large?v=1.0&amp;px=600" border="0" alt="wn.PNG" title="wn.PNG" /> Thu, 25 May 2017 10:28:09 GMT https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/how-to-understand-the-residual-white-noise-test/m-p/361521#M2379 Amy_q 2017-05-25T10:28:09Z https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/how-to-understand-the-residual-white-noise-test/m-p/362898#M2401 <P>Hi Amy,</P> <P>&nbsp;</P> <P>Indeed, it seem that the residuals has some residual structure (pardon he pun). Given that there is a high peak at lag 12, I am assuming you have monthly data and it has a seasonal component. You could try adding a seasonal factor in your model. Without knowing more about your data and model it is not easy to make more detailed suggestions.&nbsp;</P> <P>&nbsp;</P> <P>This paper has an overview of how to use the diagnostic plots with a few examples. You can look at the section on PROC AUTOREG for more details.&nbsp;</P> <P><A href="http://support.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings09/243-2009.pdf" target="_blank">http://support.sas.com/resources/papers/proceedings09/243-2009.pdf</A></P> Tue, 30 May 2017 22:03:11 GMT https://communities.sas.com/t5/SAS-Forecasting-and-Econometrics/how-to-understand-the-residual-white-noise-test/m-p/362898#M2401 mitrov 2017-05-30T22:03:11Z