topic Re: PROC X12 seasonal adjustment forecasting in SAS Forecasting and Econometrics

PROC X12 seasonal adjustment forecasting

emily_i — Tue, 01 Dec 2015 17:12:03 GMT

Does PROC X12 forecast data for use in seasonal adjustment if I use only the X11 statement without a REGRESSION or ARIMA statement? My code is like this:

proc x12 data=unadjusted date=yyq interval=4;

by sex agegrp industry;

var Emp;

x11 mode=add outforecast;

output out=Emp_add d11;

run;

My data goes through 2013 quarter 4. When I use X11 with the OUTFORECAST option, tables D10.A and D16.A include data through 2014. Does that mean data is being forecast one year ahead and then used for seasonal adjustment? Is data forecast one year ahead by default? Thanks for your help.

Re: PROC X12 seasonal adjustment forecasting

udo_sas — Fri, 08 Jan 2016 20:59:04 GMT

Hello -

Not sure if I will address your question, but If OUTFORECAST is specified, then forecast values are included in the output data sets. The default is the number of periods in a year, which in your case is 4.

Thanks,

Udo

Re: PROC X12 seasonal adjustment forecasting

mguckes — Tue, 19 Apr 2016 17:58:44 GMT

I have a similar issue but I am using PROC X13 instead.

proc x13 data = testdata date=DATE interval=MONTH plots=none;
var USMTO_Units;
transform function=log;
adjust predefined=LOM; /* use SAS predefined length of month adjustment */
regression uservar=imts / usertype=AO;
automdl;
x11 outforecast;
forecast lead = 24;
output out=x13v3_output a1 d11;
run;

I have data for the variable of interest from Jan1996 to Feb2016. In the table "testdata" I have data for regressor variable IMTS from Jan1996 to Feb2018. I have been trying to get SAS to include the forecast for USMTO_Units in the table "x13v3_output" but without success, can anyone help?

Thanks,

Michael