Event creation and scenario analysis in Forecast Studio

andreas_zaras — Fri, 13 Dec 2013 11:32:56 GMT

Hello,

I have a question concerning the use of events in Forecast Studio. As far as i know we can use the built in facilities of forecast studio to declare events of various types such as pulses, ramps etc. From a technical point of view, as far as i know, the events are incorporated in a model with the aid of dummy independent variables and transfer functions (simple or more complicated). As far as i have seen, these dummy varibles, although they must be used in the model as independent variables, cannot be seen by the user in the interface and they do not appear in the scenario analysis view along with other independent variables that are stored in the original SAS data set.

The reason for writing the above, is that i would like to conduct scenario analysis by examining the impact in the dependent variable if a similar event of the past happens again in the future. If the dummy independent variables were appearing in the scenario analysis view in a separate row i could do that by changing its values from 0 to 1.

Until now i have tried to make such an analysis with, e.g. a step type of event, by adding an extra dummy variable in the original SAS data set and declare this variable as independent. I set the value of 1 at the time when the event has happened and then for the scenario analysis i would change its value to 1 throigh the scenario analysis view. Though, this method would be very difficult with more complicated transfer function cases for modelling more complicated events such as a temporary increase in the level of series with a diminishing effect and return to the original sereis level.

So the question is whether it is possible to create an event using the event facilities and then be able to see the values of the dummy variable created in a separate row in the scenario analysis view.

Thanks in advance,

Andreas

Re: Event creation and scenario analysis in Forecast Studio

udo_sas — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 13:41:55 GMT

Hello Andreas -

Currently this is not possible, but this is a great suggestion.

I guess for the time being using a independent variable instead is the way to go.

Thanks!

Udo

Re: Event creation and scenario analysis in Forecast Studio

andreas_zaras — Mon, 16 Dec 2013 14:25:19 GMT

Thanks Udo!

topic Event creation and scenario analysis in Forecast Studio in SAS Forecasting and Econometrics

Event creation and scenario analysis in Forecast Studio

Re: Event creation and scenario analysis in Forecast Studio

Re: Event creation and scenario analysis in Forecast Studio